Blackjack Dealer Bust Odds

For blackjack players, the strategy is more or less already set. Thanks to the power of math, we have had the basic blackjack strategy figured out for decades. When you see the incredibly low house edge offered by this casino game, know it is only achievable with strategy. As such, mastering it as early as possible is nothing but a net positive for punters. The more knowledge you absorb, the better your odds will be.

However, getting to know all the details does take a while. Many players are turned off by the fact every move you make is pre-determined. For others, it is a matter of not wanting to memorise or frequently check how the strategy is played. Fortunately, there are ways to make learning the basic blackjack strategy easier. One of which is finding out the odds of a dealer busting on each round.

What Are the Dealer’s Bust Odds?

Blackjack does not give us complete knowledge of what the dealer has in hand. Depending on the blackjack variant you play, the host either draws one or two cards. In both cases, you can only see the dealer’s first card. Blackjack strategy tells us what to play depending on our hand and the dealer’s face-up card.

If you ever wondered why you Hit in some cases and Double Up in others, the answer lies here. The dealer’s face-up card has a big impact on what his odds of busting are. The numbers and accompanying bust-out rates are as follows.

Dealer’s up-card Bust-out rate
2 35.30%
3 37.56%
4 40.28%
5 42.89%
6 42.08%
7 25.99%
8 23.86%
9 23.34%
10 21.43%
Ace 11.65%

Similar to players, not all combinations are created equal. Numbers like four, five and six can be complicated first cards if your follow-up is a big card. That is why basic blackjack strategy often has you doubling down on these numbers.

NetEnt Blackjack Table

Check out the odds of dealer busting according to his up card.

Why Does It Matter?

This information is useful by itself, but it shines best as a tool to learn blackjack. You do not need to take away the exact percentages from this article. Instead, remember that four, five and six are the worst first card for the dealer, follows up by two and three.

Keeping this in mind, you will be able to see patterns appear in the basic blackjack strategy. Rather than seeing a big list of instructions you have to memorise, you will be able to make sense of it. It helped us at learn, as did strategy charts that visually display what your next move should be.